Overview
Proliferation of nonlethal weapons to other states and sub-state actors presents significant security concerns. This analysis examines the likelihood of diffusion and potential negative consequences.
Likelihood of Proliferation
Two factors suggest proliferation will occur:
1. Multiple nations pursuing development: NATO members (Russia, UK, France, Italy) are actively researching nonlethal weapons. The U.S. is not unique in this effort.
2. Demand-driven diffusion: Weapons proliferate because of demand. Common weapons like the Soviet AK-47 rifle are manufactured under license in over 14 countries and produced illegally elsewhere. Nonlethal weapons will likely follow similar patterns.
Potential Negative Consequences
External threats to U.S. interests:
- Use against U.S. troops during military interventions or stationed abroad
- Attacks on U.S. infrastructure (finance, utilities) using electromagnetic pulse generators and carbon-fiber warheads
- Escalation of conflicts involving nonlethal weapons
Internal repression by less democratic regimes:
- Transfer of nonlethal technologies to states for internal police use
- Use against civilian populations in conflict situations
- State-sponsored repression without casualties
Strategic Considerations
The U.S. and other major powers must study these technologies to plan effective counterstrategies should nonlethal weapons be used against them. The more liberal view suggests this may be the optimal time for states to negotiate a treaty banning nonlethal weapons before full benefits are known.
Sources
Sislin, John (1998). "Non-Lethal Weapons Implications for Post-Cold War Conflict." Department of Political Science, Bowling Green State University. Available at: https://irl.umsl.edu/cis/89